ElucidateAtlas
Atlas
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Microsoft

MSFTNASDAQTechnology

$417.42
$356.2852w range$555.45
Mkt cap $3.1T
Horizon

Scenario range

Bear · Base · Bull
What moves the model across cases
DriverBearBaseour central caseBull
Fair value / share$292.54$374.21$446.33
Implied upside vs price−29.9%−10.4%+6.9%
Terminal growth (g)3.70%3.70%3.70%
EBIT margin (Y5)49.0%55.0%57.0%
Intelligent Cloud growth8.0%13.5%17.0%
WACC9.85%9.85%9.85%

Bear and Bull re-solve the full model off the same WACC and terminal growth — only the segment-growth and Y5-margin overrides above move between cases.

Hyperscaler price competition (AWS + GCP) caps Azure pricing power; AI capex ROI delayed past the explicit period.

DCF VerdictFair value Bear case$292.54vs price $417.42
−29.9%Implied downside vs price

Our scenario-resolved DCF points below the current price. The reverse-DCF below shows what aggregate growth would justify today's quote.

  • Bull$446.33
  • Base$374.21
  • Bear$292.54

Market vs. Our View

Reverse DCF
What aggregate Y1–Y5 growth justifies today's price
Market implied~12%Aggregate revenue growth Y1–Y5to justify today's price at $417.42
Our bear case7%Aggregate revenue growth Y1–Y5 (blended)5-yr historical CAGR: 12.4%

Market is pricing in ~11.6% pa explicit-period revenue growth at $417.42 vs. our bear case 7.1%. MSFT's 5-year historical CAGR is 12.4% (yfinance).

DCF GaugeOur fair value vs price · FMP methods cross-check
▼ 29.9%$124.88$200.00$250.00$300.00$350.00$400.00$450.00$500.00DCF · Fair value$292.54Price$417.42
Independent cross-check FMP advanced $374.21 · levered $360.50Verdict Overvalued by 29.9%

Segment revenue — MSFT

Top-line projection built up from reportable segments · USD millions
Y1–Y5 explicit period
MSFT — per-segment revenue projection across 3 reportable segments + total, latest fiscal year plus Y1–Y5.
Segment20252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E
Productivity & Business Processes+8.0%
MSFT 10-K FY25 segment disclosure
130,000140,400151,632163,763176,864191,013
Intelligent Cloud+8.0%
MSFT 10-K FY25 segment disclosure + FMP analyst consensus on Azure
110,000118,800128,304138,568149,654161,626
More Personal Computing+2.0%
MSFT 10-K FY25 segment disclosure
42,00042,84043,69744,57145,46246,371
Total revenue282,000302,040323,633346,902371,980399,010

DCF Model — MSFT

As of May 20, 2026 · All figures in USD millions unless noted
MSFT — DCF model: 4 historical fiscal years, 5 explicit projection years, and 5 fade years. Figures in USD millions.
Line item20222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
Revenue198,270211,915245,122281,724302,040323,633346,902371,980399,010425,159449,988473,057493,935512,211
growth %—6.9%15.7%14.9%7.2%7.1%7.2%7.2%7.3%6.6%5.8%5.1%4.4%3.7%
EBIT85,77991,279110,722126,012143,469154,939167,380180,875195,515208,328220,494231,798242,028250,983
margin %43.3%43.1%45.2%44.7%47.5%47.9%48.3%48.6%49.0%49.0%49.0%49.0%49.0%49.0%
NOPAT74,54273,93690,571103,834117,788127,205137,419148,498160,518171,037181,026190,306198,705206,057
+ D&A14,46013,86122,28734,15336,24538,83641,62844,63847,88151,01953,99956,76759,27261,465
− CapEx23,88628,10744,47764,55142,28645,30948,56652,07755,86159,52262,99866,22869,15171,710
− ΔNWC446−2,3881,824−5,35010210811612513513112411510491
FCFF64,67062,07866,55778,786111,646120,624130,365140,933152,402162,403171,902180,730188,722195,722
Discount factor————0.9100.8290.7540.6870.6250.5690.5180.4720.4290.391
PV of FCFF————101,63299,95798,33996,77795,26692,41289,04485,22181,00876,477
Assumptions & sourcesInline source on every input · derivations on computed rows

Macro

Risk-free rate
4.5%
US 10Y Treasury, Federal Reserve H.15, 5/20/26
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Damodaran implied ERP, Jan 2026 update
Cost of debt (pre-tax)
5.0%
Blended yield on MSFT's outstanding senior notes, FMP bond data 5/20/26
Tax rate
17.9%
Median of trailing-4Y effective tax rates, yfinance income statement
Terminal growthThe perpetual growth rate applied to free cash flow beyond the 10-year forecast. Drives the terminal value, which is the bulk of enterprise value — it must stay below the long-run economy growth rate.
3.7%
Long-run US real GDP + inflation + cloud-mix premium, Atlas

Capital structure

Beta
1.09
FMP profile.beta, 5/20/26
Weight equity
98.1%
Derived: Market cap ÷ (Market cap + Total debt)
Weight debt
1.9%
Derived: Total debt ÷ (Market cap + Total debt)
Cost of equity
10.0%
Derived: Rf + β · ERP
After-tax cost of debt
4.1%
Derived: Pre-tax cost of debt × (1 − tax rate)
WACCWeighted Average Cost of Capital — the blended required return on the company's equity and debt, weighted by their market values. It's the discount rate that converts future free cash flows into today's dollars.
9.9%
Derived: w_e · CoE + w_d · (After-tax CoD)

Drivers

EBIT margin Y1
47.5%
Trailing 4-quarter operating margin, yfinance
EBIT margin Y5
49.0%
bear override: AI infra D&A weighs on operating margin
D&A % of revenue
12.0%
Elevated by AI infra build-out — 5-yr median, yfinance
CapEx % of revenue
14.0%
Steady-state below FY25's 23% peak, yfinance + Atlas glide path
ΔNWC % of ΔRevenue
0.5%
5-yr ΔNWC / ΔRev median, yfinance
Valuation BridgeBear case
USD millions, except per-share
Σ PV of FCFF (10y)Free Cash Flow to the Firm — NOPAT plus depreciation, less capital expenditure and the change in net working capital. It's the unlevered cash the business throws off before financing. We discount 10 years of it back to present value.
916,134
+ PV of terminal value
1,288,978
= Enterprise value
2,205,111
− Total debtTotal debt less cash is net debt — the bridge from enterprise value to equity value. We subtract debt and add back cash because equity holders own what's left after creditors are paid.
60,588
+ Cash & equivalents
30,242
= Equity value
2,174,765
÷ Shares outstanding (M)
7,434
= Fair value / share
$292.54+0.9%
vs. current price
$417.42
Implied upside
−29.9%+3.6%

Sensitivity

5×5 · WACC × Terminal g
Cells = per-share fair value · tone vs. $417.42 current price
MSFT sensitivity matrix flexing WACC down rows and terminal growth across columns, holding everything else at base.
3.20%3.45%3.70%3.95%4.20%
8.85%$424.72$437.97$452.50$468.52$486.26
9.35%$387.54$398.23$409.87$422.58$436.53
9.85%$356.00$364.75$374.21$384.47$395.64
10.35%$328.92$336.17$343.96$352.36$361.44
10.85%$305.43$311.49$317.98$324.93$332.41

Green ≥ price + 5% · Red ≤ price − 5% · Neutral within ±5% · Outline = active scenario's (WACC, g).