ElucidateAtlas
Atlas
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Microsoft

MSFTNASDAQTechnology

$417.42
$356.2852w range$555.45
Mkt cap $3.1T
Horizon
Analyst Consensus81 analystsCount of sell-side desks contributing a rating to the blended consensus, aggregated via Bloomberg Terminal and refreshed as of the snapshot date.
81Hold
  • Buy35
  • Hold44
  • Sell2

Source: Bloomberg Terminal as of May 20, 2026

Consensus ratingThe blended sell-side rating — the modal call across all covering analysts (Strong Buy → Strong Sell).: Hold

Aggregated from 81 sell-side desks · 12-month targets · Bloomberg Terminal

Target trendHow the analyst 12-month price target has moved over time. Each point is the average target across estimates from that window — all-time, then the trailing year, quarter, and month — ending at today's consensus. A rising line means targets are being revised up.Today's consensus$410.00−1.4%

Consensus 12-month target, by recency of estimate.

Average target across all estimates on record. $360.00 · 250 analysts$360ALL250Average target across estimates published in the last year. $405.00 · 72 analysts$4051Y72Average target across estimates published in the last quarter. $414.00 · 16 analysts$4143M16Average target across estimates published in the last month. $410.00 · 12 analysts$4101M12Today's consensus · $410.00$410Todayconsensus

↑ Targets revised up 1.2% vs the trailing-year average ($405.00).

Source: Bloomberg Terminal as of May 20, 2026

DCF vs consensus

Narrative vs raw calc

Our model is modestly below the desk.

Atlas DCF

$374.21

−10.4% vs price

Street target

$410.00

−1.8% vs price · Hold

Atlas values Microsoft just under where it trades — the AI and cloud build-out is real, but the price already discounts a long runway of high-teens growth with little margin for capex slippage. The street stays bullish on Azure share gains and Copilot attach. The gap is mostly the discount rate and how quickly hyperscale growth fades: small changes there swing fair value by more than the current premium.

Rating & target changes

Each row is one covering firm moving its rating and 12-month price target — newest first.

8 actions

Individual rating or price-target changes from covering firms, newest first. An upgrade raises the rating, a downgrade cuts it, and a maintained call restates the existing rating (often with a revised target).
  1. MAY 14Goldman SachsDowngrade
    Target$460.00→$422.00
    −8.3%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Downgrade: FY27 capex above $80B outruns Azure-AI monetization and pressures FCF margin; premium multiple no longer justified

  2. MAY 7Morgan StanleyDowngrade
    Target$470.00→$432.00
    −8.1%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Trims to Equal-Weight; Copilot attach solid but fully priced — capex/OCF ratio leaves no margin of safety at this multiple

  3. APR 22JefferiesUpgrade
    Target$405.00→$448.00
    +10.6%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Upgrade on datacenter siting wins in OH and WI; capacity constraints easing into 2H FY27 with Azure re-accelerating

  4. APR 9MizuhoDowngrade
    Target$450.00→$385.00
    −14.4%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Hyperscaler capex skepticism; $98B FY27 capex outruns monetization and pressures FCF margin through the build cycle

  5. MAR 19RBC CapitalMaintained
    Target$458.00→$440.00
    −3.9%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Reiterate but trims target; Azure growth healthy at 33% cc, yet the multiple already discounts AI optionality in full

  6. FEB 26Wolfe ResearchDowngrade
    Target$452.00→$418.00
    −7.5%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Steps to the sidelines; per-seat Copilot ASP up but capex cadence caps upside — fair value now sits right at spot

  7. FEB 4Piper SandlerMaintained
    Target$448.00→$425.00
    −5.1%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Reiterate Overweight but trims; OpenAI revenue-share visibility improving as the capex envelope resets higher

  8. JAN 22BernsteinDowngrade
    Target$440.00→$408.00
    −7.3%How much this firm moved its own 12-month price target versus its prior note — not the stock's upside to the new target, nor a change relative to the blended consensus.

    Downgrade; Activision overhang cleared but valuation full — gaming OpInc inflection already embedded in consensus

Source: Bloomberg Terminal as of May 20, 2026